PROGNOSIS OF DEVELOPMENT OF HEPATITIS C EPIDEMIC PROCESS IN 2018–2020 IN THE DNIPROPETROVSK REGION AND UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2018.2.9031Keywords:
hepatitis C, morbidity, growth rate, prognosis.Abstract
SUMMARY. The aim of the work: to study and analyze the dynamics of the incidence of acute viral hepatitis C (AVHC) for 2004 2017 and chronic viral hepatitis C (CVHC) for 2010 2017 in Dnipropetrovsk region in comparison with the indicators in Ukraine; determine cumulative incidence rates for hepatitis C (HC) for 2010 2017, trends and further outlook for the development of the epidemic process and the level of hepatitis C incidence for 2018 2020.
Materials and methods. The morbidity analysis was conducted using the epidemiological method. Methods for calculating the chain growth rates and analytical alignment of the original dynamic curve using logarithmic approximation methods were used to determine the main trends and predict the incidence of hepatitis C.
Results. The dynamics of morbidity in AVHC, CVHC and HC in the Dnipropetrovsk region and in Ukraine shows a wave-like character. There is a clearer tendency to reduce the incidence of AVHC and to increase the incidence of CVHC and cumulative incidence of HC in Ukraine. The average incidence rate for acute viral hepatitis C in the Dnipropetrovsk region was (2.04±0.11) per 100 thousand population in the region versus (1.72±0.12) per 100 thousand population in Ukraine (p<0.05). The average incidence rate for chronic viral hepatitis C in the Dnipropetrovsk region was (16.31±0.91) per 100 thousand population. The incidence rate was significantly higher than in Ukraine (12.94±0.31) per 100 thousand population, p <0.05). The average incidence rate for the hepatitis C in the Dnipropetrovsk region averaged (599.0±29.6) cases, in Ukraine it was (6111.1±188.1) cases in absolute terms.
Conclusions. According to the forecast data in 2018 2020, one can expect the incidence of acute viral hepatitis C in the region averaging (1.68±0.01) cases per 100 thousand population per year, in Ukraine an average of (1.20±0.02) per 100 thousand population per year. The incidence rate for chronic viral hepatitis C in Ukraine is (13.87±0.06) cases per 100 thousand population, the incidence of hepatitis C – (6715.2±36.0) cases per year.
To implement the WHO global strategy for viral hepatitis, it is necessary to cover all layers of the population with a screening program for the timely detection of hepatitis C. Patients with chronic viral hepatitis at the local and national level would help to aggregate data on the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C, which would contribute to timely planning diagnostic and therapeutic measures for patients with viral hepatitis.
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