IDENTIFICATION PARAMETERS IN SIR-MODELS ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE TERNOPIL REGION

Authors

  • V. P. Martsenyuk University of Bielsko-Biala (Poland) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5622-1038
  • M. A. Andreychyn І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-730X
  • A. S. Sverstiuk І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
  • V. S. Kopcha І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9499-3733
  • О. Т. Сhaychuk Government agency “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”
  • V. O. Panychev Government agency “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2020.2.11282

Keywords:

COVID-19 pandemic, SIR model, forecasting methods

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to propose methods of analysis and forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic spread in Ternopil region on the basis of SIR-model.

Materials and methods. The input data for the analysis and forecasting of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic were the indicators of the Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. Analysis and prediction of the spread of this pandemic in the Ternopil region was carried out on the basis of the SIR model and in the R package.

Results and discussion. The results of experimental studies of the number of predicted cases of infection and people who recovered using SIR-model and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic based on linear  and nonlinear differential equations for 60, 100 and 1000 days.

Conclusions. The absolute error in predicting the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ternopil region based on the SIR model using nonlinear differential equations is 10 days, which is explained by the introduction of timely and effective measures by the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center.

Author Biographies

V. P. Martsenyuk, University of Bielsko-Biala (Poland)

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Professor of the Department of Computer Science and Automatics, University of Bielsko-Biala (Poland)

M. A. Andreychyn, І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

MD, Professor, Academician of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Chief of the Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Dermatology and Venereology Department of I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

A. S. Sverstiuk, І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

PhD, Associate Professor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of Medical Informatics Department of I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

V. S. Kopcha, І. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

MD, Professor of the Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Skin and Venereal Diseases Departmen of I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

О. Т. Сhaychuk, Government agency “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

Deputy of Public Institution the “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

V. O. Panychev, Government agency “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

a Deputy of Director from Research of Biological Factors of Public Institution the “Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

References

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Published

2020-08-10

How to Cite

Martsenyuk, V. P., Andreychyn, M. A., Sverstiuk, A. S., Kopcha, V. S., Сhaychuk О. Т., & Panychev, V. O. (2020). IDENTIFICATION PARAMETERS IN SIR-MODELS ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE TERNOPIL REGION. Infectious Diseases – Infektsiyni Khvoroby, (2), 15–21. https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2020.2.11282

Issue

No. 2 (2020)

Section

Original investigations

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Received 2020-08-10
Accepted 2020-08-10
Published 2020-08-10