IDENTIFICATION PARAMETERS IN SIR-MODELS ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE TERNOPIL REGION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2020.2.11282Keywords:
COVID-19 pandemic, SIR model, forecasting methodsAbstract
The purpose of the work is to propose methods of analysis and forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic spread in Ternopil region on the basis of SIR-model.
Materials and methods. The input data for the analysis and forecasting of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic were the indicators of the Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. Analysis and prediction of the spread of this pandemic in the Ternopil region was carried out on the basis of the SIR model and in the R package.
Results and discussion. The results of experimental studies of the number of predicted cases of infection and people who recovered using SIR-model and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic based on linear and nonlinear differential equations for 60, 100 and 1000 days.
Conclusions. The absolute error in predicting the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ternopil region based on the SIR model using nonlinear differential equations is 10 days, which is explained by the introduction of timely and effective measures by the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and Ternopil Regional Laboratory Center.
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