CLINICAL PREDICTORS OF SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BLASTOCYSTOSIS TREATMENT WITH NIFURTATEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2025.3.15593Keywords:
blastocystosis, clinic, therapy effectiveness, prognosisAbstract
SUMMARY. The issue of individualisation of patient treatment is an urgent problem of modern medicine. One of the ways to solve this problem is to develop predictors of the efficacy of drugs prescribed, including nifurtel in the treatment of blastocystosis.
Patients and methods. In order to establish the prognostic significance of clinical symptoms, a retrospective analysis was performed in 69 patients with blastocystosis aged 17 to 54 years who were treated with nifurtem in combination with symptomatic therapy. All patients were divided into alternative groups: with good (group A, n=41) and satisfactory (group B, n=28) therapeutic effect.
Group A included patients with a degree of regression of clinical manifestations of the disease ≥31 % in 1 month after the start of treatment, and group B − with ≤30 %. The effectiveness of treatment after 1 month from the start of treatment was used as a criterion for the short-term prognosis.
Results and discussion. The preliminary analysis revealed significant differences in most symptoms between the groups, which gave rise to the development of predictors of the effectiveness of nifurtem therapy using the heterogeneous sequential Wald-Henkin procedure.
It was found that high prognostic informativeness was revealed by the degree of manifestation of clinical symptoms (J=3.74), duration of the disease (J=2.05), patient’s age (J=1.60), dizziness (J=3.08), lymphadenopathy (J=2.85), headache (J=2.75) and joint pain (J=2.66), dyspeptic syndrome (J=2.62), memory impairment (J=2.42), right hypochondrium heaviness (J=2.41), muscle pain (J=1.67), body temperature (J=1.38), tachycardia (J=1.07) and vegetative-visceral syndrome (J=1.02). Moderate prognostic value was observed for decreased work capacity (J=0.82) and heart pain (J=0.50), and low prognostic value for abdominal pain (J=0.45), spleen enlargement (J=0.44) and liver enlargement (J=0.23). No predictive properties were found for symptoms such as gender (J=0.14), skin manifestations (J=0.07), convulsions (J=0.04) and jaundice (J=0.01).
The test of the prognostic algorithm on the training group (n=69) revealed high reliability, as the number of false predictions was 4.3 % and did not exceed 5 % (p<0.05) of the specified level of reliability, correct predictions were 81.2 %, and uncertain predictions were 14.5 % of cases.
Conclusions. An algorithm for short-term prognosis (up to 1 month) of the effectiveness of nifurtem therapy in patients with blastocystosis was developed using the heterogeneous sequential Wald-Henkin procedure, which determined the values of prognostic coefficients for each of the symptom gradations and their overall prognostic information content.
The most diagnostically informative were clinical symptoms such as the degree of manifestation of clinical symptoms (J=3.74), dizziness (J=3.08), lymphadenopathy (J=2.85), headache (J=2.75) and joint pain (J=2.66).
Testing the algorithm on the training group (n=69) at 95 % reliability level revealed its high efficiency, and the proportion of false predictions was 4.3 %, which did not exceed the specified level of reliability, while the correct predictions were 81.2 %, and uncertain – 14.5 %.
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