REGRESSION MODEL OF THE PROBABILITY OF RECURRENCE OF ACUTE ULCERS OF GASTRODUODENAL BLEEDING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/2414-4533.2024.1.14645Keywords:
bleeding, gastroduodenal ulcers, recurrence, regressionAbstract
The aim of the work: to develop a regression model of the probability of recurrence of acute gastroduodenal bleeding taking into account clinical and laboratory and local (morphological) criteria.
Materials and Methods. 378 patients were examined to predict the recurrence of gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding, the average age of the examined was (45.34±1.32) years. The gender component was 121 women and 257 men. Multivariate regression analysis in the Statistica 12.0 program was used to build a prognostic model of recurrence of gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding. The Nigelkirk test (R2) was used to check the quality of the prognostic model, and the ANOVA analysis was used to assess the acceptability of the model.
Results and Discussion. A regression model of the development of recurrence of gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding was obtained, which includes such factors as gender; age; term of hospitalization; blood type; hemoglobin on admission; primary or recurrent (bleeding); ulcer localization; ulcer size; class for Forrest; accompanying pathology; drug therapy, type of endoscopic hemostasis, biopsy of the edge of the ulcer.
It was established that 86.70 % of the listed factors play a significant role in the model for predicting the risk of recurrence of the gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding. The coefficient of determination indicates that the obtained observations confirm the effectiveness of the mathematical model. The use of the proposed mathematical model, which takes into account the identified risk factors for the development of recurrence of gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding, provides the possibility of early prediction of potential complications and the probability of recurrence of the disease. This, in turn, contributes to early diagnosis and selection of more effective and less harmful methods of treatment of gastroduodenal bleeding.
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