ANALYSIS OF SUBSEQUENT DISEASE CASES IN ESTIMATION OF COST OF ILLNESS OF ROTAVIRUS INFECTION

Authors

  • S. O. Soloviov P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
  • G. A. Mokhort O. Bohomolets National Medical University
  • M. V. Leleka P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education
  • L. O. Kursenko National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/2312-0967.2018.2.9004

Keywords:

rotavirus infection, subsequent disease case, computer modeling, vaccination.

Abstract

The aim of the work. Evaluation of subsequent cases of rotavirus infection (RVI) using retrospective epidemiological data and mathematical and computer modeling.

Materials and Methods. The information basis for the analysis was the retrospective epidemiological data of monthly RVI morbidity inUkraine from 2010 to 2016, methods of mathematical and computer modeling.

Results and Discussion. Using the developed software, probabilities of RVI in different age groups and the expected number of primary and subsequent cases of disease for newborns in the first five years of life were determined. The highest probability of the disease was observed in children in the age of 1-2 years, which is consistent with world trends. Despite the fact that in the world it was decided to take into account the first few cases of RVI, the results of computer simulations showed that the number of primary cases significantly dominates the number of subsequent cases in the morbidity of RVI among children under five years of age in Ukraine.

Conclusions. The obtained modeling results are of great importance when carrying out a pharmacoeconomic study of specific prevention of RVI among children of Ukraine, since it has been shown that the costs of treatment of the first case of illness should be taken into account and subsequent disease cases, as much less likely, can be neglected.

Author Biographies

S. O. Soloviov, P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"

P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"

G. A. Mokhort, O. Bohomolets National Medical University

O. Bohomolets National Medical University

M. V. Leleka, P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education

P. Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education

L. O. Kursenko, National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"

National Technical University of Ukraine "Ihor Sikorskyi Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"

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Published

2018-06-21

How to Cite

Soloviov, S. O., Mokhort, G. A., Leleka, M. V., & Kursenko, L. O. (2018). ANALYSIS OF SUBSEQUENT DISEASE CASES IN ESTIMATION OF COST OF ILLNESS OF ROTAVIRUS INFECTION. Pharmaceutical Review Farmacevtičnij časopis, (2), 96–101. https://doi.org/10.11603/2312-0967.2018.2.9004

Issue

No. 2 (2018)

Section

Pharmacoeconomics

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