CYCLICITY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE, ITS CAUSES AND PROGNOSIS

Authors

  • O. V. Oleksenko Chernihiv Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2021.3.12494

Keywords:

solar activity, epidemic process, cyclicity, mathematical model, forecast

Abstract

The aim of the work is to study the phenomenon of cyclicity of infectious diseases associated with the cyclicity of solar activity, the study of factors that determine the activation of the epidemiological process, to build a mathematical model of sunburn during the solar cycle.

The principle of construction of time series of morbidity during the full solar cycle at periodicity of 3 and 5 years on the basis of real indicators of infectious morbidity registered in the territory of Ukraine is offered.

The model of long-term prognosis of infectious diseases on the basis of the minimum indicator corresponding to the first year of a cycle is considered, formulas of calculation of average and maximum indicator of morbidity for a cycle are offered.

Author Biography

O. V. Oleksenko, Chernihiv Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine

MD, Head of the Department of Organization of Epidemiological Research of the Pryluky Town District Department of the State Institution “Chernihiv Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

References

Chizhevsky, A.L. (1976). Terrestrial echo of solar storms. Moscow: Mysl [in Russian].

Yagodinsky, V.N. (1985). Rhythm, rhythm, rhythm. Moscow: Znaniye [in Russian].

Bochkariev, N.G. (1985). Magnetic fields in space. Moscow: Nauka [in Russian].

Nikberg, I.I. (1989). Ionizing radiation and human health. Kyiv: Zdorovia [in Russian].

Vavilov, S.I. (1976). Eye and sun. Moscow: Nauka [in Russian].

Gromashevsky, L.V. (1947). Private epidemiology. Moscow: Meditsina [in Russian].

Beliakov, V.D., & Yafaiev, R.Kh. (1989). Epidemiology. Moscow: Meditsina [in Russian].

Ministry of Health of Ukraine (1998). Handbook of infectious diseases. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].

Syniak, K.M., & Hyrin V.M. (2001). Epidemiology with the basics of medical parasitology. Kyiv: Zdorovia [in Ukrainian].

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Published

2021-11-29

How to Cite

Oleksenko, O. V. (2021). CYCLICITY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE, ITS CAUSES AND PROGNOSIS. Infectious Diseases – Infektsiyni Khvoroby, (3), 49–54. https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2021.3.12494

Issue

No. 3 (2021)

Section

Original investigations

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Copyright (c) 2021 Infectious Diseases

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