CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC PROCESS DURING THE SECOND WAVE OF ITS RISE IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The aim of the study is to determine the peculiarities of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine during the second wave of its incidence.

Materials and methods. A comparative analysis of the epidemic process of COVID-19 in Ukraine in early 2021 and during the new rise in morbidity (second wave) according to official reports.

Results and discussion. The first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine lasted until the end of the first 2 weeks of 2021. Starting from the 7th week of the year it is possible to state the rise in the incidence of the second wave with a maximum at weeks 13–14 (weekly incidence rates were 271.7–276.3 per 100 thousand population). From the 15th week (1 week after the introduction of the lockdown in most regions of Ukraine on April 5, 2021) its decrease began; from the week 21 of 2021, we can talk about the cessation of the second wave of rising morbidity. The incidence of COVID-19 was significantly correlated in time with the overall incidence of ARI (r=0.88±0.05), and we can indirectly talk about the underdiagnosis of COVID-19. The minimum weekly mortality rates from COVID-19 observed in weeks 6, 7 and 22 of the year (2.0 per 100 thousand population), the maximum – in weeks 14–15 (7.1 per 100 thousand population). The total mortality during 01.01–06.06.2021 increased from 1.8 % to 2.3 %, and the weekly mortality during weeks 17–22 steadily exceeded 4.0 % and tended to increase. Among patients aged 60–69 and 70 and older at the end of the second wave, the total mortality exceeded the mean value among the total number of patients (2.33 %) by 1.6 and 4.8 times, respectively. The proportion of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 by PCR ranged from 4.8 % to 33.4 % with the lowest levels from week 18, with a significant reduction in the incidence of the second wave.

Conclusions. We can talk about the acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the second rise in the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine compared to the first wave. According to the results of epidemiological analysis of official statistics for the period of the new epidemic wave (7–20 weeks), there were no significant changes in the epidemic process of this infection, except for its sharp intensification, which led to overload of the health care system, increased mortality. According to the results of epidemiological analysis of official statistics for the period of the new epidemic wave (7–20 weeks), there were no significant changes in the epidemic process of this infection. At the same time, it sharply intensified, which led to an overload of the health care system and an increase in mortality (mainly due to patients over 60 years of age, who accounted for 81.72 % of deaths with their share among patients 29.15 %). The total mortality rate increased in 2–3 weeks after the increase in the ratio of the number of patients to the number of hospitalized to the level of 2.7 and above. The official incidence statistics for COVID-19 are underestimated. According to epidemiological signs, no evidence of increased virulence of SARS-CoV-2 virus detected.