Forecasting the modification of natural mosquito-borne foci of extremely dangerous infections in Ukraine under the influence of climate change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2021.3.12444Keywords:
extremely dangerous infections, natural foci, climate, forecastingAbstract
The beginning of the new millennium was marked by a significant increase in the levels of biological hazards and threats, despite the progress and new advances in the fight against infectious diseases. Changes in climatic conditions with a tendency to increase the average long-term temperatures have led to redistribution and structural changes in the habitats of biological species of animals, birds, reptiles and many other components that form the parasitic systems of zooanthroponoses. Spatial changes in enzootic territories with the reformatting of superareas have led to an increased risk of affection the population by pathogens of extremely dangerous natural focal infections and invasions.
It is carried out the analysis of real and potential threats to Ukraine due to climate change and the resulting spatial changes of natural foci, their functional duration and the emergence of new pathogens with taking into account the existing trends of changes in a number of epidemiologically significant abiotic and biotic factors. The emergence of new pathogens and the formation of active natural and mixed foci of mosquito-borne transmissible infections, mainly of the diffuse type, is predicted. There is a high probability of rooting in the state territory of new pathogens or highly virulent genetic variants of endemic agents. Potential dangers are the pathogens of fevers – Chikungunya, dengue, Zika, West Nile (new genotypes), and also malaria.
Risk areas of dengue fever, Chikungunya, as well as malaria will be the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa, Chernivtsi and Zakarpattia regions. West Nile fever will expand the range to cover the northern territories in the Polissia area, and there is a real threat of replacing this pathogen in the western region with a highly virulent neuroinvasive genotype due to the spread of it from the Romania territory. The group of mosquito-borne infections will become dominant among transmissible natural focal infections with a predominance of polyhostal foci.
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