DEVELOPMENT OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE INVENTION OF COVID-19 IN THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2727.2021.1.11880Keywords:
pandemic, COVID-19, mathematical forecasting methods, servicemen, armed forcesAbstract
The purpose of the work is to develop a model of the dynamics of the spread of acute respiratory disease COVID-19 in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which allows forecasting the level of morbidity of personnel on the basis of available statistics
Materials and methods. The materials for the study were the data of the operational group of data collection of the Sanitary and Epidemiological Department of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Results and discussion. The results of researches of the number of predicted cases of infection of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic were obtained on the basis of linear and nonlinear differential equations with the use of mathematical modeling.
Conclusions. It is established that the incidence among the population of Ukraine, including the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be described using the sigmoid function. The developed mathematical model corresponds to real indicators and can be used as a probable forecast model. The graphical representation of the dynamics of morbidity of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on COVID-19 is similar to the dynamics of officially registered general morbidity among the population of Ukraine.
Using the obtained model, it is estimated that in mid-March 2021, according to the pessimistic forecast, the accumulated number of infected in the Armed Forces of Ukraine can probably be about 18,000, and the optimistic – 16,000.
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