DYNAMICS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES ON THE BACKGROUND OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The aim of the work is to study the impact of some epidemic risks on the dynamics of infectious diseases of the population of Ukraine in the conditions of socio-economic transformation.

A retrospective epidemiological analysis, which is based on the study of the long-term morbidity of the population using the statistical data from the sectoral reports of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and the State Sanitary Inspection, has been conducted in order to establish the dynamics of the infectious process in Ukraine. A correlation analysis and a correlation-regression model have been implemented to identify the strength and nature of the coherence between indicator dynamics of the primary infectious diseases (prevalence of diseases) and some factors of the human activity environment.

The total number of population in Ukraine decreased by 17.6 % in 1994-2015 and it was accompanied by changes in the dynamics of infectious diseases (descent) as evidenced by the direct correlation between the dynamics of indicators, which are characterizing these phenomena (0.65≤r≤0.73).

Socio-economic transformations in Ukraine have led to a reduction of waste produced by the economic activities of enterprises, in particular, by 2.2 times the emission of pollutants into the air. Thereby, the indicators of infectious morbidity were more strongly correlated with the total volume of suspended particles in the air from stationary sources (r≥0.91), emissions of nitrogen oxides (r≥0.75), carbon monoxide (r≥0.82), emissions of substances in the form of suspended solids more than 2.5 microns and less than 10 microns (r=0.96). Therefore, a concentration decrease of these substances in the air has a positive impact on the health of the population.

The inverse correlation between the socio-economic development of the country (regions) and the prevalence of infectious diseases (for the first time detected infectious disease) indirectly indicates that the increase of the capital investment by the different types of the economic activity (-0.48≤r≤-0.59); increase of the total income of the regions and disposable income per capita (-0.67≤r≤-0.80); increase of the population income, including wages (-0.75≤r≤-0.83), as well as increase of the current investment in the protection of the environment (-0.48≤r≤-0.59) contribute to the reduction of infectious morbidity.

Conclusions. The obtained results show that the living conditions of the population in different regions of Ukraine significantly differ in terms of the socio-economic, environmental, demographic and other indicators, thereby, infectious diseases are an indicator, which is sensitive to their changes. The revealed interrelations between the living conditions of the population and infectious diseases indicate that the dynamics and manageability of the epidemic process of infectious diseases depend on many factors, and the obtained results are the basis for the development and assumption of the appropriate management decisions to ensure the epidemic well-being on the state and regional levels.