APPLICATION OF A MULTIFACTOR REGRESSION MODEL TO PREDICT THE RECURRENCE OF CHRONIC MESOTYMPANITIS IN PATIENTS WHO HAVE UNDERGONE SURGICAL TREATMENT (TYMPANOPLASTY)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/2414-4533.2025.1.15178Keywords:
chronic mesotympanitis, prognosis, multivariate regression analysis, recurrence, tympanoplastyAbstract
The aim of the work: to propose a new original approach for prediction of the risk of recurrence of chronic mesotympanitis in patients who have undergone surgery on the middle ear, based on the use of multivariate regression analysis in order to timely implement effective preventive measures.
Materials and Methods. 111 patients aged 18 to 80 years with a diagnosis of chronic mesotympanitis who have undergone surgery on the affected ear (tympanoplasty), were examined. On the eve of hospitalization and treatment, all patients underwent a comprehensive clinical and laboratory examination, which included an otolaryngological examination, collection of life and disease history, the presence of previous surgical interventions on the ear, a complete blood count with leuko-formula, and a biochemical blood test. Statistical processing of the obtained study results was carried out using the statistical package Statistica 10.0 and the spreadsheet editor Microsoft Excel 2019.
Results. To build a multivariate regression model for predicting the risk of recurrence of chronic mesotympanitis, 16 probable factors of the disease were analyzed. 13 factors were selected for predicting the risk of recurrence of chronic mesotympanitis with a significance level of less than 0.05. The obtained histogram of residual deviations for predicting the recurrence of chronic mesotympanitis, as well as the normal probability line, confirmed the statistical hypothesis that the residual deviations correspond to the normal distribution law. The coefficient of determination was also calculated, which was 0.8504, which gave grounds to claim that 85.05% of factors were taken into account in the model for predicting the risk of recurrence of chronic mesotympanitis and its high reliability and acceptability in general.
Conclusions. The proposed model allows predicting the possibility of recurrence of the disease in advance. It will contribute to the development of algorithms for postoperative patient management to prevent disease progression and restore the function of the sound-conducting apparatus, as well as prevent potential otogenic cranial and intracranial complications.
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