THE INCIDENCE OF CHRONIC HEPATITIS C IN THE STRUCTURE OF CHRONIC VIRAL HEPATITIS IN THE DNIPROPETROVSK REGION AND UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/2415-8798.2018.1.8791Keywords:
chronic viral hepatitis C, chronic viral hepatitis, morbidity, incidence, rate of growth, prognosis.Abstract
According to the WHO , the costs associated with controlling chronic diseases and overcoming the risk factors make up a significant share of the gross domestic product of each country. In this case, patients and their relatives often face significant costs of treatment, lower incomes due to illness, disability, early retirement and increased dependence on social support services.
The aim of the study – to learn and analyze the incidence rate of chronic viral hepatitis C in the structure of other chronic viral hepatitis in the long-term dynamics for 2010–2017 in the Dnipropetrovsk region in comparison with the indicators in Ukraine, and to determine the trends and further forecast of the development of the epidemic process.
Materials and Methods. The morbidity analysis was conducted using the epidemiological method. Methods for calculating chain growth rates, smoothing of time series by means of moving (variable) averages, and also constructing regression models were used to determine the main trends and predict the incidence of HV and HCV.
Results and Discussion. The specific weight of chronic viral hepatitis C annually in the structure of the incidence of chronic viral hepatitis (B, C, D) in the Dnepropetrovsk region is (82.83±1.15) %, in Ukraine – (75.76±0.79) %. The dynamics of the incidence of chronic viral hepatitis C in Ukraine and in the Dnipropetrovsk region is undulating, with a more pronounced tendency to increase in Ukraine. The average incidence rate in the region was (16.31±0.91) per 100 thousand people compared to (12.94±0.31) per 100 thousand population in Ukraine (p <0.05).
Conclusions. According to the forecasted data in 2018–2020 we can expect the incidence of chronic viral hepatitis C in Ukraine on average (6215.7±43.4) cases per year, the incidence of chronic viral hepatitis – (7976.5±44.4) cases. To implement the WHO global strategy on viral hepatitis, it is necessary to introduce a wide screening program to clarify the incidence and prevalence of parenteral hepatitis, including HCV, among various strata of the population and create a register of patients with chronic viral hepatitis both in the region and in Ukraine as a whole.
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