MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF RISK FACTORS ON THE PROBABILITY OF ADVERSE OUTCOME IN SEVERE TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY

Authors

  • V. M. Shevaha Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • A. V. Paiepok Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • V. V. Biloshytskyi A. Romodanov Neurosurgery Institute
  • B. V. Zadorozhna Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • A. M. Netliukh Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • O. Ya. Kobyletskyi Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • T. H. Hutor Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University
  • D. V. Shchybovyk Danylo Halytskyi Lviv National Medical University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/2415-8798.2016.4.7144

Keywords:

severe traumatic brain injury, risk factors, mathematical model, forecasting program.

Abstract

The aim of the research was scientific substantiation of quantitative evaluation of the risk of adverse outcome in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) by using the electronic program of mathematical forecasting. Traumatic brain disease in patients with severe TBI was the object of the research. The logistic regression method with validation by the Wald Chi-square test (p<0.001) had been used to create a forecasting mathematical model of clinical outcome of patients with severe TBI. It was established that five of the nine estimated factors have provoking effect on the probability of death in patients with severe TBI: age, hypoxia, Marshall Score, blood glucose level and DNA. However, four factors have a preventive effect: Glasgow Coma Scale, levels of hemoglobin, arginine and nitric oxide. We created an electronic program for automatic calculation of forecasting output of patients with severe TBI, whereby a doctor can calculate immediately the probability of death or adverse outcome by entering the digital data of these risk factors. Mathematical forecasting helps to identify patients with a high probability of death or adverse outcome that will allow to choose on time the effective method of treatment and increase the chances of recovery. 

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Published

2017-02-09

How to Cite

Shevaha, V. M., Paiepok, A. V., Biloshytskyi, V. V., Zadorozhna, B. V., Netliukh, A. M., Kobyletskyi, O. Y., … Shchybovyk, D. V. (2017). MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF RISK FACTORS ON THE PROBABILITY OF ADVERSE OUTCOME IN SEVERE TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY. Bulletin of Scientific Research, (4). https://doi.org/10.11603/2415-8798.2016.4.7144

Issue

No. 4 (2016)

Section

SURGERY

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