INDIVIDUAL PREDICTION OF THE OCCURRENCE OF RECURRENT WHEEZING IN CHILDREN WITH BRONCHIOLITIS BASED ON THE MULTI-POPULATION WEIBULL MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/24116-4944.2023.1.13936Keywords:
bronchiolitis, recurrent wheezing, bronchial obstruction, children, early age, vascular cell adhesion molecule -1, eosinophilic neurotoxin, multi-population Weibull modelAbstract
The aim of the study – to develop models for the individual prognosis of the occurrence of recurrent wheezing in children with bronchiolitis, taking into account allergic history, passive smoking, vitamin D supply, VCAM-1 and EDN levels.
Materials and Methods. The main group consisted of 34 children with bronchiolitis without a serious allergic history. The comparison group consisted of 33 children suffering from bronchiolitis with severe allergic history. The analytical frame of the study was based on the two-population Weibull model.
Results and Discussion. The risk of recurrent wheezing in children with bronchiolitis according to the Weibull model was: allergic history, β= 679.57; passive smoking, β= 1114; living in the city, β= 517.8; artificial feeding with β= 767.3; deficiency and insufficiency of vitamin D, β=448.3; high levels of VCAM-1 β= 17.84 and EDN β=0.182, which significantly increase the risk of recurrent wheezing in children with bronchiolitis.
Conclusions. Increased levels of VCAM-1 and EDN proved to be significant markers of prognosis. The role of VCAM-1 is extremely important for creating a prognosis, since it is the level of this marker that determines the heterogeneity of two populations. EDN level ≤ 7 ng/ml in blood serum is a prognostic marker for the risk of recurrent wheezing in children with bronchiolitis.
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