ANALYSIS OF HIV/AIDS SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE

Authors

  • S. O. Soloviov Shupyk National Healthcare University of Ukraine; National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv polytechnic institute»
  • I. V. Dziublyk Shupyk National Healthcare University of Ukraine
  • O. V. Kovaliuk Shupyk National Healthcare University of Ukraine
  • O. S. Olephir National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv polytechnic institute»
  • V. V. Malchykov National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv polytechnic institute»
  • A. A. Symchuk University Hospital of Lord's Transfiguration, Poland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/mie.1996-1960.2021.1.12187

Abstract

Background. Using the available statistics on the monthly incidence and prevalence of HIV / AIDS in Ukraine and statistical demographic data of the Ukrainian population, a model was built that describes three subgroups of the Ukrainian population in dynamics with respect to the epidemic process of the disease. The aim of this study is to use an SD approach in the modeling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine to estimate its features and trends.

Materials and methods. Used open statistical data on the monthly incidence and prevalence of HIV / AIDS in Ukraine, as well as statistical data on the population of Ukraine.

Results. The analysis of the model showed that the key parameters of the HIV / AIDS epidemic process decrease over time. The developed dynamic model was investigated for equilibrium stability. It was shown that a small disturbance of the dynamic system (population change, introduction of prevention strategies, etc.) can lead to a shift in its balance to a new equilibrium point. The fact that the key parameters of the HIV / AIDS epidemic process are declining indicates the effectiveness of existing prevention strategies, such as testing and antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions. In the field of HIV prevention, analytic models become necessary for analysis of recent epidemiological data, so simulation of impact of dynamic behavior of HIV prevalence in recent population. In our research, we proposed to consider Ukrainian population as a dynamic system in the context of HIV epidemics. Such dynamic system was divided into three compartments, reflecting susceptible, HIV-infected and AIDS population

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Published

2021-09-07

How to Cite

Soloviov, S. O., Dziublyk, I. V., Kovaliuk, O. V., Olephir, O. S., Malchykov, V. V., & Symchuk, A. A. (2021). ANALYSIS OF HIV/AIDS SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE. Medical Informatics and Engineering, (1), 22–30. https://doi.org/10.11603/mie.1996-1960.2021.1.12187

Issue

No. 1 (2021)

Section

Articles

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