THE INCIDENCE OF CHRONIC HEPATITIS C IN THE DNIPROPETROVSK REGION AND UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1811-2471.2018.v0.i2.8928Keywords:
chronic viral hepatitis C, chronic viral hepatitis, morbidity, incidence, rate of growth, prognosis.Abstract
The aim of the study – to learn and analyze the incidence rate of chronic viral hepatitis C in the long-term dynamics for 2010–2017 in the Dnipropetrovsk region in comparison with the indicators in Ukraine, and to identify trends and further forecast of the epidemic process.
Material and Methods. The morbidity analysis was conducted using the epidemiological method. To determine the main trends and predict the incidence of chronic hepatitis C, methods of calculating chain growth rates, smoothing of time series using the method of moving (variables) averages, as well as constructing a regression model were used.
Results. The dynamics of the incidence of chronic hepatitis C in the Dnipropetrovsk region and in Ukraine is wavy, with a more pronounced tendency to increase the rates in Ukraine. The average incidence rate for chronic hepatitis C in the region was (16.31±0.91) per 100 thousand population, in Ukraine – (12.94±0.31) per 100 thousand population (p<0.05). The high incidence of chronic hepatitis C in the cities of the region (18.67±1.19) per 100 thousand population) was noted, which twice exceeded the corresponding indicator in rural areas (9.40±0.84) per 100 thousand population, p< 0.001). The average values of the rate of growth (decrease) in the incidence rates indicate an annual increase in the incidence of chronic hepatitis C in the city of Dnipro, the districts of the region and in Ukraine (p<0.05). There is no steady increase in its levels in the cities of the oblast and Dnipropetrovsk region.
Conclusions. According to the forecast data in 2018–2020, it can be expected that the incidence of chronic hepatitis C in Ukraine is on average (13.87±0.06) per 100 thousand population year. To implement the WHO global strategy for viral hepatitis, it is necessary to strengthen control over the detection and registration of chronic hepatitis C. A broad screening program must be implemented to clarify the incidence and prevalence, to systematize the accounting for chronic hepatitis C, taking into account cumulative indicators in the long-term dynamics by keeping a register of patients with chronic viral hepatitis, both at the regional and national levels.
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