TRENDS AND FORECAST ESTIMATIONS GENERAL AND PRIMARY MORBIDITY ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2016.3.7007Keywords:
coronary heart disease, prevalence, primary incidence, forecast.Abstract
Purpose: to study dynamics of indicators of prevalence and morbidity for coronary heart disease (CHD) of the population of Ukraine in regional aspect during 1996–2014 and to forecast their changes in 2025.
Materials and methods. As research materials were used the data of Center of Health Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the level of primary incidence and prevalence of CHD in the population of Ukraine. In our research, epidemiological, demographic, statistical methods of research are used.
Results. Using the method of demographic regions, we estimate changes in prevalence and incidence of CHD in Ukraine and its separate regions for 1996–2014. tendency of further growth in CHD is predicted both for Ukraine on the whole and for some districts.
Conclusions. Over the last 19 years in Ukraine prevalence and morbidity of CHD has significantly increased – 2.1 and 1.6 times respectively. More of these indicators have changed in Southern and Southeastern regions of Ukraine. Projected figures on prevalence and incidence of CHD indicate a tendency of their growth, especially in Southeastern and Southern regions.References
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