PROGNOSTIC ESTIMATION OF INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF DISEASES OF CIRCULATORY SYSTEM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2015.3.5763Keywords:
angina, myocardial infarction, prevalence, primary incidence, forecast.Abstract
Purpose: to study dynamics of indicators of prevalence and morbidity of the population of Ukraine due to angina and myocardial infarction (MI) in regional aspect during 1996–2014 years and forecast their changes in 2025.
Materials and methods. As research materials were used the data of Center of Health Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the level of primary incidence and prevalence angina and MI among the population of Ukraine. In work epidemiological, demographic, statistical methods of research are used.
Results. Using the method of demographic division estimation of changes in prevalence and incidence of angina and MI in Ukraine and its separate regions for 1996–2014 years has been spent. It is predicted tendency of further growth angina and MI, both in Ukraine and in some districts.
Conclusions. Over the last 18 years in Ukraine prevalence and morbidity of angina and MI has significantly increased - 2,7 times and 1,7 times accordingly. More of these indicators have changed in Southern region of Ukraine. Prevalence MI increased by 96.4%. Projected figures on prevalence and incidence angina and MI indicate a tendency of their growth, especially in Southeast and Southern regions.
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