GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING OF DEMOGRAPHICAL INPUT INTO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES RELATED DISABILITY RATES IN ZHYTOMYRSKA OBLAST, UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2014.3.3530Abstract
Purpose: disclosure of demographic environment impact on the spatial heterogeneity of disability risks due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Zhytomyr region.
Materials and methods. Data were adapted to age-period-cohort (APC) compatible strip-split plot design, 11 birth cohorts from date of birth before 1940 and consequently by five year intervals («1941-45», «1946-50», … , «after 1985»), 13443498 adult-years totally. Incidence disability cases certified in 1999-2008 have been retrieved from records of medical expert committees. Methods: GLM mixed model with spatial covariance matrix processed by GLIMMIX procedure, SAS.
Results. Space heterogeneity in disability rates appeared to be significantly modified by irregularity in distribution of APC factors and density of population.
Conclusions. Significant impact of demographic factors on medical events has been established. However its studying is complicated with hierarchical data organization and presence of randomized effects that require multilevel mixed-approach. Another problem is collinearity APC-component. Geostatistical modelling can help in smoothing irregular local features and selection of regular local laws.
KEY WORDS: geostatistical analysis, disability, cardiovascular diseases, medical and social environment.
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