PROGNOSTIC ESTIMATION OF INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF DISEASES OF CIRCULATORY SYSTEM
Keywords:
cardiovascular diseases, prevalence, primary incidence, forecast.Abstract
Purpose: to study dynamics of indicators of prevalence and morbidity of the population of Ukraine due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in regional aspect during 1996–2013 years and forecast their changes in 2020.
Materials and methods. As research materials were used the data of Center of Health Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the level of primary incidence and prevalence CVD among the population of Ukraine. In work epidemiological, demographic, statistical methods of research are used.
Results. Using the method of demographic division estimation of changes in prevalence and incidence of CVD in Ukraine and its separate regions for 1996–2013 years has been spent. It is predicted tendency of further growth CVD, both in Ukraine and in some districts.
Conclusions. Over the last 17 years in Ukraine prevalence and morbidity of CVD has significantly increased - 2,7 times and 1,7 times accordingly. More of these indicators have changed in Southern region of Ukraine. Projected figures on prevalence and incidence CVD indicate a trendency of their growth, especially in Southeast and Southern regions.
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