CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF MORTALITY IN UKRAINE: REAL AND PREDICTED
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2022.2.13304Keywords:
structure of mortality by cause, COVID-19Abstract
Purpose: to determine shifts in the structure of mortality due to causes in Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic; to formulate hypotheses about the predicted changes due to full-scale war.
Materials and methods. The information base for statistical analysis is the reporting of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Age-standardized (European standard) mortality rates due to significant causes for 2013 and 2019–2021 were used for the comparative analysis.
Results. The primary structural shift in mortality of the population of Ukraine for the period 2019–2021 is the second-ranked place of COVID-19 (12.3 % in 2021). Since 2019, there has been a decrease in the share of cardiovascular diseases (up to 60.1 %), neoplasms (10.4 %), and an increase in the significance of respiratory diseases (3.7 %). The total share of traditional leading causes (cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and external causes of death) decreased from 85.7 % to 74.6 %. Differences in the structure of mortality by gender remained, which consisted in a greater significance of mortality for women due to diseases of the circulatory system (64.9 % vs. 55.0 % for men); the significantly greater significance of mortality among men due to external causes (6.7 % vs. 1.6 % for women) and diseases of the digestive system (4.5 % vs. 2.6 %, respectively).
Conclusion. A likely change in the structure of mortality by causes in Ukraine, determined by the combined effect of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the war on the territory of the country, will be a change in the ratio of endogenous and exogenous causes of death with a significant increase in the contribution of both external causes (primarily for men) and infectious pathology in general, including coronavirus disease.
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