EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FEATURES OF COVID-19: OVERVIEW OF THE COURSE AND FORECASTING

Authors

  • A. H. Shulhai I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine
  • N. O. Terenda DM (Medicine), Professor of the Department of Public Health and Health Care Management, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
  • H. S. Saturska DM (Medicine), Professor, Head of the Department of Public Health and Health Сare Management, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
  • N. Ya. Panchyshyn PhD (Medicine), Associate Professor of the Department of Public Health and Health Care Management, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
  • O. N. Lytvynova I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine
  • N. О. Slobodian I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2021.1.12133

Keywords:

COVID-19, morbidity, mortality, prognosis

Abstract

Purpose:  to analyze the features of the prevalence of coronavirus disease in Ukraine and the world in order to determine the priorities of the organization of medical and preventive care.

Materials and Methods. Bibliographic, medical-statistical, epidemiological, analytical methods are used in the work. The scientific literature and statistical data of the WHO and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on morbidity and prognosis of morbidity, mortality, and, accordingly, the need for hospital resources for the treatment of patients with COVID-19 were analyzed.

Results. In March 2021, there was a significant increase in cases of disease and death from COVID-19 in the European region, the United States and the Middle East. According the to forecasts of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, by July 1, 2021, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 will come to be about 4.5 million people, in Ukraine – 61.5 thousand people with a significant number in April and May. By August 1, these figures could be 4.7 million people and 63.1 thousand people, respectively. Such a significant increase in the incidence of COVID-19 cause that the health care system needs to increasing the number of beds for patients with coronavirus infection in April to 40–43 thousand beds and up to 2400–2600 intensive care beds.

Conclusions. Received data indicate the presence of the third wave of COVID-19 in the world in April-May 2021, which covered mainly the countries of the European region, North America and the Middle East. In order to reduce the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population health, it is necessary to intensify the vaccination process and follow the rules of anti-epidemic protection.

Author Biographies

A. H. Shulhai, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine

DM (Medicine), Professor of the Department of Public Health and Health Care Management, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

O. N. Lytvynova, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine

PhD (Medicine), Associate Professor Public Health and Health care Management Department, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

N. О. Slobodian, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, Ternopil, Ukraine

PhD (Economics and Enterprises Management), Associate Professor Public Health and Health care Management Department, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University

References

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Bogg, T., & Milad, E. (2020). Demographic, personality, and social cognition correlates of coronavirus guideline adherence in a U.S. sample. Health Psychology, 39(12), 1026-1036.

Sibley, C.G., Greaves, L.M., Satherley, N., Wilson, M.S., Overall, N.C., Lee, C.H.J., & Barlow, F.K. (2020). Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown on trust, attitudes toward government, and well-being. American Psychologist, 75(5), 618-630.

Eno Louden, J., Vaudreuil, E., Queen, C., Alvarez, M.E., & Garcia, A. (2021). Flattening the curve in jails and prisons: Factors underlying support for COVID-19 mitigation policies. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 27(1), 124-139.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ukraine?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

https://covid19.who.int/table/

https://population-hub.com/ua/list-of-countries-by-population.html

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

https://www.who.int/ru/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Tanu Singhal. (2020). A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). Indian J. Pediatr., 87(4), 281-286.

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Published

2021-06-02

How to Cite

Shulhai, A. H., Terenda, N. O., Saturska, H. S., Panchyshyn, N. Y., Lytvynova, O. N., & Slobodian N. О. (2021). EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FEATURES OF COVID-19: OVERVIEW OF THE COURSE AND FORECASTING . Bulletin of Social Hygiene and Health Protection Organization of Ukraine, (1), 5–10. https://doi.org/10.11603/1681-2786.2021.1.12133

Issue

No. 1 (2021)

Section

Health of the population:tendencies and forecasts

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