FORECASTING OF CURRENT AND OUTCOME OF THE ADHESIVE INTESTINAL OBSTRUCTION AT CHILDREN.

Abstract

Features of clinical current of an adhesive intestinal obstruction at 90 children have been investigated. Based on the analysis of 210 attributes and 32 most significant from they have been selected for forecasting an outcome of disease. Conducting factors in an estimation of risk of current and an outcome of an adhesive intestinal obstruction at children are symptomatic characteristics of “a place of illness”, duration of clinical displays of disease, the general condition at admission in a hospital, an expressiveness haemodynamical infringements, viability of an intestine, and also character of current of the early postoperative period. It fixed, that between a score and probability of a failure of an adhesive intestinal obstruction there is a severe dependence, which carries exponential character. At the sum of marks up to 17 (I degree of risk) the probability of a failure of disease makes 5,1 %, from 17,1 up to 53,5 points (II degree of risk) – 30,3 %. At III degree of risk (the sum of marks 53,6 – 122) the probability of a failure reaches 72,0 %, and at IV degree -   % (the sum of marks more than 122,0). The offered scheme of definition of risk of clinical current of the acute form of an adhesive disease at children allows quantitatively to estimate heaviness of an initial condition of patients and in most cases correctly to predict an outcome of disease.