PROGNOSTICATION OF THE RISK OF SEVERE COVID-19 IN CHILDREN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11603/24116-4944.2024.2.15089Keywords:
COVID-19, vitamins, pro-inflammatory cytokines, mathematical modelAbstract
The aim of the study – to develop a prediction model that allows identifying children at high risk of developing severe COVID-19 and applying preventive measures in a timely manner.
Materials and Methods. A total of 112 children aged 1 month to 18 years with confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses were examined. The study was based on data on vitamins and cytokine levels in serum, determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).
Results and Discussion. The model incorporated key predictors of severe COVID-19 progression: pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α and IL-6, as well as vitamins A, D, and B9. These parameters were significant for assessing the risk of severe disease in children, enabling effective risk stratification and adaptation of preventive measures.
Conclusions. The study confirmed the critical role of pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α and IL-6, along with the serum levels of vitamins A, D, and B9, in predicting the risk of severe COVID-19 in children. The developed mathematical model based on multiple logistic regression analysis provides high accuracy in identifying patients with an elevated risk of severe disease. This facilitates the timely implementation of preventive measures and individualized treatment, contributing to the reduction of severe COVID-19 cases in children and the optimization of medical resource utilization.
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